ES Morning Update June 18th 2025
While we are pulling back some it’s too small I think for the market to be topped. This looks and feels like we won’t pullback much more then 5700-5800 into the 26th and then we go back up into July/August for a new all time high.
Short term, today is the FOMC and it’s normally bullish. So I have to think that if we go down after 2pm from the first reaction, but it could turn back up into the close. I still think we are in an ABC pullback but the C wave down is looking more likely to play out into late next week.
So today, from yesterdays low, could be the B wave up? Hard to say right now for sure? But we should still have some kind of pullback into next week. If the Fed doesn’t say anything positive that “B wave” could already be done? If so, then we should start the 5 wave decline for the C after the meeting. If the B wave is not done the we’ll go up after the meeting for another lower high, and then the C down starts later this week.
It’s a tough call and I don’t know the answer, but we do have a C wave down coming for the pullback, and around the 26th is where the low should happen. How low I don’t know? But it’s not looking likely to go down into the 5500′s now. I think it will be much higher then that (5800′s maybe?) as time is running out for such a deep decline. That move is likely going to happen later, like after the rally up into July/August.
Have an blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/06/18/es-morning-update-june-18th-2025/
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